Lewis Hamilton’s move to Ferrari for 2025 is the most significant Formula One driver market shift since Hamilton himself chose to leave McLaren and come to Mercedes. That choice occurred in late 2012, before to his Formula One debut with the Silver Arrows the following year.
The decision to go to Ferrari took longer, but it outperformed the previous one, as well as Sebastian Vettel’s moves into and out of the Scuderia over the last decade and change.
Its only surprising opponent is Fernando Alonso’s Alpine-to-Aston Martin move. And, apologies to Tazio Nuvolari and Auto Union fans, but there’s a strong case to be made that this is the largest motorsport driver move in history.
Ferrari remains F1’s most iconic and successful team, and Hamilton has surpassed the championship’s driver fame stakes. This is especially true for current champion Max Verstappen, who prefers to stay out of the public eye.
The connections between this news and Hamilton’s departure from McLaren are evident. The V6 turbo hybrid era was expected to arrive one year later Mercedes tenure, and all that success that eventually brought.
Although the major rule reset of 2022 still feels fresh, the 2026 regulation revisions – particularly with the increased emphasis on electrical power and sustainable fuel in engines – are no longer on the horizon now that 2024 has started.
However, while this is a great and exciting new chapter for F1 as a whole, as well as for Hamilton himself, the risks of a move are different this time.
Back F 2012, the question was whether an untested and even openly sceptical Mercedes works team could ever give Hamilton with title-winning machinery like he had at McLaren.
F1 has long understood how that would turn out, with the inevitability of Hamilton having to leave his junior driver nest at McLaren often forgotten in the story.
When Hamilton joined Mercedes in 2013, he had no way of knowing if he’d be able to add to his 2008 world title and 21 race victories just as his prime years began. However, the impending regulation change had the potential to provide a significant benefit.
In 2024, Hamilton had not long since described the “raw excitement” of beginning the Mercedes construction project. He adds both parties “expected it to be shite to start off with because they hadn’t had a lot of success” in that situation.
Given how close Mercedes and Ferrari were to each other at the time, this call should be considered as an equally sideways step as that of 2012/2013, and both will be far behind Verstappen in 2023.