- In a potential 2024 contest against former President Donald Trump, the “Keys to the White House” are leaning toward Vice President Kamala Harris.
Nevertheless, a definitive forecast for the 2024 election has not yet been issued.
Allan Lichtman, an election forecaster who has been accurate in almost every race since 1984, developed a method for making predictions about upcoming presidential elections, Arizona Central reported
In a potential 2024 contest against former President Donald Trump, the “Keys to the White House” are leaning toward Vice President Kamala Harris. Nevertheless, a definitive forecast for the 2024 election has not yet been issued.
Allan Lichtman, an election forecaster who has been accurate in almost every race since 1984, developed a method for making predictions about upcoming presidential elections, Arizona Central reported.
Thirteen true-or-false questions make up Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House,” which he claims provides a clear indicator of the candidate who will be declared the winner on the autumn ballot.
Every question concerns one of the two rival nominees; if the answer is “true,” the contestant gets a “key,” and if the answer is “false,” the other contestant wins the point. The candidate of one party is expected to win if they receive six or more keys.
This year, he predicts Kamala Harris will win.
The 13 “keys” are: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma, and challenger charisma.
The keys include whether:
–The White House party gained House seats during the midterm elections.
–The sitting president is running for reelection.
–The White House party is avoiding a primary contest.
–There is a third-party challenger.
for Trump, he narrowed the deficit against Harris in a national contest by two points, with the vice president barely edging him.
In the most recent survey of those registered to vote in a contest with several candidates, Harris defeated Trump 49% to 48%. When registered voters were pitted against multiple candidates back in August, Harris was leading 48% to 45%.
In contrast, among registered voters, Trump defeated President Biden 43% to 42% in the July survey.
In the September survey, Harris’ margin over Trump among those who were certain to vote increased to 51% to 48%.
According to the September results, Harris leads Trump by 15 points among women and by 12 points among males.
In the multi-candidate race, Harris received 74% of the support of black voters, while Trump received only 24% of the vote.
Voters gave her a slightly higher favorability rating than Harris, who received 47% favorable to 46% negative views, and Trump, who received 45% favorable to 50% unfavorable views.
52% of respondents identified Harris as the candidate most likely to support change, far more than the 47% who said Trump. Similarly, 52% of respondents claimed that Harris is more likely than Trump to be concerned about the average American.
Regarding philosophy, 47% of respondents thought Harris was too liberal, 41% said her views were “about right,” and 9% thought she was too conservative. In the meantime, 10% thought Trump was too liberal, 43% thought he was too conservative, and 43% said he was “about right.”